CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Wed 01 Feb 06:00 - Thu 02 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 31 Feb 22:12 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

Thunderstorms are forecast across eastern Mediterranean

SYNOPSIS

Broad upper high covers most of western and central Europe. In the range of this high ... cooled subtropical airmass is present ... characterized by a strong inversion at low levels. To the east ... cold arctic airmass is present and leads to a blocking trough over northeastern Europe. Over Mediterranean ... well-developed upper cut-off low moves eastward. Potential for some thunderstorms should be limited to this feature. Latest soundings show that neutral to slightly unstable lapse rates are present in the range of the cut-off and that low-level moisture is rather rich over southern Mediterranean. Seems that a least weak CAPE will be able to build. Given QG forcing in the rane of the propagating trough ... as well as some low-level forcing due to weak frontal boundaries ... showers and thunderstorms should be likely. However ... as upper jet will be far southeast from this instability ... and vertical wind shear will be marginal ... chance for organized convection should be weak.

DISCUSSION

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